2018 FORCASTS WILL BEGIN IN LATE JANUARY WITH THE WAITING PERIOD STARTING ON FEBRUARY 1, 2018.
FORECAST 30 MAY, 2017 BY STEVE PIKE
The southern storms of winter are channelling most of their energy towards Indo and Australia, with a succesion moving below the country over the next few days.
Two large storms are starting to from from Friday and peaking into the weekend. The first deepens below the country with a massive 1,500 mile fetch that points up into the underbelly of the country. This is a strong and long South swell that won’t impact too much on Durban.
The next storm has an inkling of hope for the Good Wave depending on how the forecast transpires in the coming days. A fierce SE fetch forms around the storm, as it interfaces with the unusually southern situated Indian Ocean High, but the storm is forecast to be too far to the east by then, with the wind fetch pointing more towards Madagascar or the Maldives, and not properly towards Durban, although some residual periphery swell from the propagation arc may be felt.
If it changes, by deepening earlier and facing more towards South Africa, we’re looking at a long range SE swell in the middle of next week. We’re watching that one.
FORECAST 24 APRIL, 2017 BY STEVE PIKE
A series of high pressure systems are sinking into place just off the East Coast of South Africa, creating a week of NE onshores and deflecting the approaching autumn storms to the south. These low pressure cells are dipping below South Africa, tracking around the bottom of the High, before pushing up into the Indian Ocean. This is good for the eastern perimeter of the Indian Ocean from Indonesia to Western Australia, but not for Durban.
The High off the coast is due to strengthen and grow in size over the next five days, until by Thursday evening, a large easterly fetch has formed across the top of the system, sending a lot of easterly windswell towards KZN, particularly the North Coast and Mozambique. However, this is not a good swell direction for Durban.
By Saturday, another large high pressure system sinks in south of Cape Town, adding to the Indian Ocean high to create two neighbouring High pressure cells. This continues to repel the Roaring 40s storms, with no warmer cyclonic activity in the north. Eventually, the two systems move east and merge together into one large High. This opens the gap for a small storm to approach Cape Town, but again, it sinks south, with wind directions facing the wrong way for Durban.
FORECAST 20 APRIL, 2017 BY STEVE PIKE
A strong SE swell has pushed into KZN from a strong storm that has been passing slowly below the country, interfacing with a very south-placed High pressure system. The storm currently sits SE of Durban, and the winds continue to blow in the SE swell for the next two days.
The interaction between the High pressure cell and the low pressure cell has resulted in the more direct swell direction. Over the last few days, strong SSW to SW winds have been blowing, and the buster is set to continue blowing into Friday, when wind and swell slowly begin abating.
By the weekend, both are gone, leaving light winds and much smaller swell in their wake. By Sunday, the High pressure cell is south of the East Coast, and the approaching autumn storms are giving it a wide berth, pushing most of their energy into the Indian Ocean towards Indo and Australia.
No cyclones visible either. By the weekend,